Zinc Price Update: H1 2025 in review

Market performance by numbers

The price of Zinc began with a bottom speed, on December 10, the US slipped from $ 3,150 per metric tonnes to US $ 2,750 on 31 January.

Zinc Price Chart, 1 January to 31 July, 2025

Through tradingconomics

The metal received some support in February and March, climbing US $ 2,928 on 24 February and then reached a year-away US $ 2,971 on 14 March; However, it was not final. The bottom fell from the bottom of the zinc and quickly fell at a low of US $ 2,562 on 9 April.

Since then, the zinc market has been unstable, and although it has somewhat cured, it is still away from its first quarter, reaching US $ 2,865 on 23 July.

What is behind the price?

According to a review by Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) on 29 June, pre-China zinc focused production rose by 6.47 percent to 1.3 million metric tonnes vs. 1.22 million metric tons of 2024 during the same period of 2024.

This attributed these growth to resume in production in Boliden’s Tara mine in Ireland, and ramp-up in Mexico’s Bunnavista mine in Mexico and Ivano’s Kipushi in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Additionally, SMM mentioned that Shinjiang’s Hooshuun Lead-Jinak mine began production in May, with output to reach 50,000 metric tonnes in its first two months and is expected to reach 150,000 MT in July. The company is targeting full-year production of 700,000 to 750,000 metric tonnes.

Although the supply seems strong and focused in 2024, sugar imports increased by 52.46 percent, the treatment duty for imported metal has also increased from US $ $ 20 per metric tonne to US $ 65 in May at the beginning of the year. The rapid increase in fees indicates an oversuply in the market, allowing smelters to charge more.

The SMM findings have been further supported by data released from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), which stated on 18 June that mining supply increased from 3.75 million metric tonnes to 3.94 million metric tonnes in 2024 during the first four months of the year.

It also showed flat demand for metal with 4.28 million metric tons vs. 4.3 million metric tons with 4.28 million metric tons during that period.

Replacement

The huge decline in commodity prices in April shows how critical the global markets can be.

Zinc prices fell 13.77 percent in early April, with President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement and later sales in equity and US Treasury markets to US $ 2,562 per ton.

At that time the prediction of analysts was that if the mutual tariff was placed, it would trigger a recession before the end of the year, affecting consumer expenses on homes and cars, with significant zinc inputs.

Metal demands have already weakened in the last several years due to high inflation and interest rates after epidemic. Although inflation has decreased, and the interest rates have begun to normalize, the new tariff threat provides a new layer of uncertainty.

So far, auto manufacturers have so far raised their prices, but the demand for new cars has increased by 2.5 percent in March, 1.1 percent specific for the same period in recent years. The profit is attributed to consumers who are looking at the more important value.

The inspiration behind the tariff is to encourage domestic production, but the desire to follow with producers through new American projects is uncertain.

For its share, the Trump administration has indicated a desire to return large infrastructure and important mineral projects, continuing the fast -41 program starting under the President Joe Biden.

The purpose of the program is to streamline the permission procedure and speed growth deadline to produce projects faster.

So far, the only zinc project to be included in the list is near Harmosa, Tuxon, Arizona of South 32.

In its update for the June quarter, progress on the site with the company’s reporting continues to earn US $ 517 million in investment in FY 25. It has also been said that work on the main and ventilation shaft started during the second quarter, and construction work started at the processing plant.

In addition to development activities, the company also stated that it met a major milestone with the American forest service, with a draft environmental impact details released.

The project is expected to see its first production from Taylor Deposit during the second half of 2027.

As a promise of a campaign, Trump proposed to free the federal land for housing projects, which could increase the demand for galvanized steel products. The scheme will invite developers to bid on the land with the promise that one percent of the units will be kept separate for affordable housing, and 4 million home shortage will be discontinued.

However, on July 22, a report by Realtor.com poured cold water on the idea, stating that when it could offer older benefits, it was noted that there was not enough land in places that require housing.

Instead, the report suggested that better methods are available, including land use and zoning improvements, and growing construction capacity in high-deserv areas.

So where does he leave zinc?

With the expected supply surplus from Ilzsg, a significant change may not occur in the card for zinc prices in the short term, especially when tariffs are met with weak demand due to uncertainty.

Although there was some recovery at the end of the second quarter, the position of oversupply does not give much support to increase the market boom.

The market has seen a lack of investment to a large extent as the basic principles of the market have not provided support.

The June 11 report by the German Investment Bank, IKB analysts noted the situation to be developed in the zinc market and predicted that by the end of the third quarter, zinc prices would trade in US $ 2,600 per tonne range.