The price of bitcoin is showing some signs of life, trading $ 1.1% a day and about $ 114,000. But zoom out, and weekly performance still shows a decline of -3.77%, wondering traders: is there just a jump, or the next BTC ($ 114,277.00) rally is the beginning of the rally?
To find out, it helps to look beyond the chart. Long-term holders, Valulation trends and trader selected are beginning to up-chain signal line up, and they all indicate a BTC price level.
Older holders move aside because the pressure relaxes
Most meaningful improvements begin when holders start selling. And this is the reason why we are looking at the output bands spent now.
Between 23 July and 1 August, the output bands spent 7–10 years became slightly wide. This means that for a long time, coins were running, holding bitcoins for almost a decade. Such sales were previously included between July 10 and July 19, when bitcoin prices were corrected from the peak of $ 123,000 to $ 117,000.
Nevertheless, long-term holder-inspired sales are seriously decreasing on July 4 with the seriously making a summit.
Note: July 10-Jamulai 19 band July 23- August 1 was wide compared to 1 band, with a clear decline in long-term Herders sales.
And the current band widening (July 23-August 1) was dusty, Bitcoin was conducted above $ 113,000, which shows that the market was breaking that sapo. And this is a sign of BTC value strength.
Selling this conservation is disappearing. The same spent output bands are now thinning, indicating that life is liked by older holders on a large scale. When these wallets stop selling, it often indicates the potential end of an improvement phase.
When coins of different ages run, the outt bands spent show. The broad, factor bands are equal to more movement. When the olds become thin, it means that the supply pressure is disappearing.
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The MVRV ratio reflects undeclaness, and it is historically fast
Along with settling supplements, the next question is evaluation. And for that, the MVRV (the market price realization price) ratio is brightening an familiar pattern.
Currently, MVRV is at 2.19. This is the same area that has triggered many rallies in recent months.
In June 2025, when it hit 2.16, the price of bitcoin increased from $ 101,000 to $ 110,000 in six days. Back in April, 2.12 stepped from $ 101,000 to $ 119,000. And in November 2024, 2.04 set a Rali from $ 67,000 to $ 98,000.
One thing was the same in all those runs: they begin when MVRV was above 2, and the supply from the old holders was already before exiting. This is exactly the setup we are watching now.
The MVRV currently compares the BTC value to the average cost base of all holders. A low ratio means that there is still space to grow; A high one often means overheat. Right now, we are in sweet place.
Even trader positioning is shifting in the same direction. The long/short ratio, which was at 0.89 two days ago, is now flipped at 1.02. This is a subtle innings, but it confirms that more traders are turning upside down, such as valolation signals say that to run the room.
Takeaway? We are in the same pocket; The supply press is slow, the evaluation is sitting in a launch zone, and the traders are getting ready quietly.
The price of bitcoin should be cleaned $ 117,000; Or it puts another mesh at risk
On the chart, the price of bitcoin was drawn at an all -time high of $ 123,000 from the June low of $ 98,000 to an all -time high.
Below him, the BTC price support sits at $ 111,900 and $ 110,000. If the bulls lose those climbs, the next serous floor is below $ 107,000, which also serves as an invalidation for rapid setup.
But everyone has a large number of $ 117,000. According to the chart, the area above $ 117,000 has a maximum congestion, showing how important the support/resistance is.
If the price can flip that level, it can trigger the next BTC Rali. If not, we see another unsuccessful mott in a tempering color.
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