In a cheeky decision, the Texas Republicans began to redraw the card of the State Congress – an effort to stimulate President Trump and the GOP during the mid -term elections of 2026.
Governor Gavin Newsom has threatened to respond in kindgerrymandering Blue California To give the Democrats an elevator and compensate for the lonely slot for power.
This would mean the removal of political lines drawn by a Commission of independent citizensthat voters created almost two decades ago to remove the line of state politicians.
Our columnists Mark Z. Barabak And Anita Chabria Concern in disagreement, but amicably, on the wisdom and implications of the threatened decision of Newsom. Here they chop.
Barabak: Gavin Newsom – or the 48th President of the United States, While he submits – Maybe is the second just behind Donald Trump when it comes to Surf a political wave. And the same goes for redistocking and remuneration.
This can establish partisan democratic hearts in the race – which is part of Newsom’s intention – but this is a bad decision for all kinds of reasons. Notably, Ignore the will of California voters, who said in a resounding way to state self-furele politicians No more!
I understand the attitude of combat and with-fouu which drives the support support for the conversation 48, East, Newsom. But the danger leads to even more widespread damage.
Over the years, a lot of Zeitgeist-Y Newsom stems to have come to nothing. It is another which belongs to the heap of scrap metal.
Chabria: I agree that the chances of Vegas are on the side of this tit-form being nothing more than a big partisan piece.
But.
There is a larger and more important question here which comes down to the serious of our democracy in danger.
If, Mark – as I think you are inclined to at least hope – this too will pass and our next elections will be free and fair, but that can land, then the idea of Gerrymnderie our districts of the Congress can only be consistant. This is particularly true in California, one of the rare states in which the people voted to guarantee our electoral cards with non -partisan equity.
If, like me, however, you think that we are at the forefront of a knife to lose our democracy in authoritarianism – or at least an oligarchy where hatred is exercised for power – then gerrymandering becomes a form of peaceful resistance.
Newsom recently said: “We can act more holy than that. We can sit on the touch, talk about how the world should be, or we can recognize the existential nature which is this moment ” – which gives you an idea of his thought, and frankly, mine.
I’m going to dive into this area, but that may be where we are starting. Do you think that our democracy is healthy and what we are witnessing is only a period of dissatisfaction that will pass without prejudice?
Barabak: I hope so.
I don’t give in to anyone My disgust with Trump And concern about what he does. He is authoritarian. Autocratic. Arrogant. Undemocratic. And that does not even go beyond the letter “A.”
But actions like The Newsom threaten that redistribution does not take place in a vacuum, which is important to keep in mind. Short -term tactical gains can cause long -term pain.
For example: in 2013, the Democrats were so upset by the republican blocking of judicial and executive appointments of President Obama who Leader of the majority of the Harry Reid Senate invoked “the nuclear option”. At the request of Reid, the Senate narrowly voted to modify its rules and prohibit the sub -presidential candidates’ suburbus.
The result is Defense secretary Pete HegsethHealth and Social Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. And A whole clown car Members of the Trump cabinet.
And while the Democrats explicitly declared that the change of rule would not apply to the Supreme Court, once the door was open, the Republicans scammed their path and also eliminated the filibusier for these candidates. The result is Neil Gorsuch,, Brett Kavanaugh,, Amy CONEY BARRETT And the 6-3 of the High Court Trump Coddling Conservative Super-Majority.
Those who fight fire with fire may burn themselves.
If the Democrats want a war on redistribution, the Republicans have much more ways to make Gerrymander and potentially seats – in places like Florida, Missouri and Ohio – than Democrats.
Chabria: No doubt. But, and it is as weak as possible, I will pay the price of a Hegseth, maybe even two, if it really saves democracy. Here is the reality: the only hope of a congress that will limit Trump through the democratic process is to move at least a certain power to the Democrats during the 2026 elections.
If the Republicans of Texas, under pressure from Trump, manage to redraw up to five new seats at the GOP – and that does not explode on their faces, which could – the decision would stimulate the chances that the house remains an entourage of Trump and that the prospect of authoritarianism goes from brush fire to influence.
The truth is that gerrymandering is much more common than most think. Kevin Johnson, an expert Network of electoral reformersrecently wrote that “in the 1990s, only 40% of the seats in the House of Representatives were considered a safe thing for one or the other, now that The figure is 83%. “It’s because most GERRYMANDER states.
Really, the only really competitive races take place in states like California which have independent and non -supporting people drawing the electoral cards. So, to play the Devil defender, we have already lost against Gerrymandering in the United States and in California simply does not know.
This is a problem that could be solved if a future president and the congress wanted to do it. But that requires going to a future president and the congress. I always put this on the file: I do not care or republicans or democrats. I care about democracy.
If California Gerrymander helped transform congress into real control against authoritarianism and left the gerrymandering repair for later, would it really be so bad?
Barabak: Your crystal ball should be less misty than mine.
I am not all convinced that even a gain of five seats from the Maison du Texas would guarantee control of the GOP of the house. (And leave Me Put this on the file: I think what Trump and his Texas servants do is completely reprehensible.)
Since the Second World War, the opportunity has acquired an average of more than two dozen seats at home in mid-term elections. Democrats need three to gain control.
There is even, as you suggest, a chance of the Republicans’ Political pigs By spreading their too thin voters, creating districts that Democrats could pick up if there is a fairly large blue wave.
Speaking of a look back, it is not sure that the Californians would approve the effort of Gerrymander of Newsom if he said it to a vote during a special election to prevail over the commission.
The surrender of power to politicians is a fairly large demand in today’s environment. And it is not as if Newsom had a deep reservoir of good will on which to rely; just Look at his survey numbers.
He went to South Carolina To, allegedly, campaign for candidates for the Democratic Chamber, even if the State does not have a single competitive competition. California has about 10 races that seem to be at least somewhat competitive – However, you do not see his democratic colleagues claiming that Newsom goes through their districts.
Chabria: I don’t have a crystal ball. What I have is a deep well -priced well, but the hope of an optimistic that your scenario of blue power, of power to people occurs.
In the meantime, Newsom said on Friday that redistribution “is not a bluff”, and he explored several ways to do so.
On this list is a legal bet. Our current redistribution laws say that the cards must be drawn enough every 10 years, after the census – but do not specifically say that we cannot gerrymander between the two. Newsom essentially suggests cheating with a sunset clause: the immediate redistribution that benefits the Democrats, but that would expire when regular redistribution occurs.
It is drastic and can simply be attached to the courts indefinitely.
But I am frustrated that politicians, experts and even ordinary people continue to treat this administration as a policy as usual, and I appreciate that Newsom is not, even if part of it is motivated by a personal gain for a presidential offer in 2028. Perhaps our democracy has already been on the edge, but that makes this cliff no less dangerous. We, the people, have to get out of our regular reactions to the Republicans compared to democrats or cultural wars or in partisan divisions or one of the much more harmless stressors of stress that has tormented our system in the past.
What I like in Newsom’s JAB is that this forces us to have conversations like this and to ask ourselves how we beat us differently?
Because this fight is different.
Barabak: It may seem Pollyannaish, but I think there is nothing of these frightening times that cannot be corrected in the polls.
Texas Can have a competitive race in the American Senate Next year. If the Texans do not like the impressive of the GOP legislators and their capture of power, they can send a message by electing a democrat, by helping the party overcome the chances And take control of the room. It would put a check on Trump, that the Republicans are hung at home.
It is in the hands of voters. If democracy will be protected and preserved, it is them. Do not plot politicians.