John Manley is tired of people who tell immigrants to “queu” and “do the right way”.
An immigration lawyer for almost three decades in Los Angeles, he said that most of them did not understand is that trying to come legally to the United States is almost impossible For people of certain nations such as Mexico.
“People die online,” he said. In some cases, “it is literally an expectation of 150 years”.
Manley said that one of his customers, an American citizen from Mexico who asked his two brothers to become legal residents, waited for more than 15 years and ended up burying them instead of giving them the good news.
“They are doing their best. They queue,” he said. “But when you have a system that has been essentially designed to fail from the start, it is difficult to have confidence in this system.”
Immigration laws have not seen a wholesale reform for almost 40 years, but as the Trump administration crampon On undocumented migrants, politicians see a window of opportunity. Economists, immigration lawyers and academics say that without another rescue valve, it is not only immigrants who will suffer but people in a large strip of economy.
Senator Alex Padilla (D-California) plans on Monday to introduce legislation which could potentially provide a way of citizenship to 11 million immigrants who have lived in the United States for at least seven years. With a chamber and a Senate led by the Republicans, the legislation, who died last year, is unlikely to pass, but Padilla said that he wanted to reintroduce the bill because he felt a “mood change” at Congress and across the country.
It is not the only one. Earlier this month in the House, representatives Maria Elvira Salazar, (R-Fla.), And Veronica Escobar, (D-Texas) dusted their legislation, The act of dignitywhich would give qualified undocumented immigrants living here before 2021 up to seven years of legal status with work authorization.
For decades, the Republicans and the Democrats have tried and failed to bring reforms to what is largely considered as an obsolete system, which during the last exercise approved 3% of 34.7 million green card requests pendingAccording to David Bier, researcher at the Cato Institute.
“Given the extreme exceeding the Trump administration, I think it’s time,” said Padilla. “You speak to colleagues on both sides of the alley of agricultural workers, agricultural workers. They say that agricultural workers are worth better, but the political will has not been there for many years.”
But the imagery of Trump’s application actions against non -criminals – videos of mothers moaning when separated from children and arrests of workers and sellers outside of household deposits – have infiltrated national conscience and have aroused criticism through political lines.
A Gallup poll Released earlier this month has shown record immigration support. When asked if immigration was generally a good or bad thing for the country, 79% of us adults called us a good thing. And a record of 17% considered him a bad thing.
A year earlier, the Americans concerned about their own portfolios were increasingly worried about the waves of immigrants on the southern border and voted in President Trump, whose hard immigration policies were at the center of his campaign.
In 2024, Gallup poll showed that 64% considered it a good thing and 32% as a BAAD thing.
Asked about the law on dignity earlier this month, the White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said The president had not read the legislation, but “was very clear, he will in no way support amnesty for illegal foreigners”.
In the context of democratic and republican administrations, America looked in the other direction that immigrants have filled jobs in the fields, cooking and cleaner at the back of restaurants, taking care of children and building houses.
But with the application of the Trump administration law, net migration will probably become negative in 2025, and monthly employment growth and GDP could fall by the end of this year, According to a newspaper of the Conservative American Enterprise Institute.
One of the authors of the newspaper, the economist of the Brookings Institution, Tara Watson, said that this drop in migration did not occur because they kept registers in 1960. A typical year would bring around 1.2 million people, of which around 600,000 legally come to green cards from abroad and others who cross illegally or come to seek asylum or another status.
The document projects that the United States could lose up to 525,000 people and could reduce the growth of interior products, or GDP from 0.3 to 0.4%.
She called a projection in the “shocking” negative migration.
“All the growth of our workforce comes from immigration,” she said. “Our workforce born in the United States is in fact now at the stage where it shrinks.”
If this tendency continues to lie down, she said, it could make the United States less attractive for academics, scientists, technological workers and doctoral students.
“We have built an entire infrastructure around global talents,” she said. “If we lose that it could be in the long term, really, really harmful to our economy. In the short term, I would say that it will slow down our growth.”
The wrinklers of the application of immigration like Melhman, with the Federation of the American Reform of Immigration, count that a economy which is built on the cheap labor of immigrants degrades the conditions of American workers.
“You can create self-realization prophecies, that if you offer bad wages and bad working conditions, and that the Americans do not arise and do not apply for these jobs, then you turn around and say:” Well, you see, only immigrants will take them, “he said.
His group recommends “migration based on merit” and says that “migration of the chain” or family migration must be eliminated, except for immediate parents.
Under the 1965 law on immigration and nationality, the United States has made the admission of immigrants with relatives Here a priority. The system has replaced the quotas of national origin tinted racly, which dates back to the 1920 and favored European immigrants.
Each year, around 1 million people obtain a green card – a prelude to citizenship – through four basic ways: a family relationship, a work, a lottery system or as a refugee or sit. The most common way is through family ties, and many of approved those already live in the United States
The current system imposes ceilings on the number of green cards approved for the family – excluding immediate parents – at 226,000 per year. And it also caps green cards based on employment at 140,000 per yearAlthough there are exceptions.
Family relationships, as Manley customers used, are life expectations and many can take decades. If you asked for a Mexican brother 24 years ago, your case would only come. But these waiting times are now longer, because the file has developed. For India, cases of 19 years are now approved, and for almost all other countries, it takes about 17 years.
The drop in birth rate and aging demographic data means that the workforce cannot meet demand. Bier stressed that the United States ranks in the lower third of countries rich for immigrants per capita.
The result is a repressed demand that attracts workers to come illegally.
“There is a gap between the economy and the legal system which has created, for many years, a system where … The invitation to workers is built, but no legal status is offered,” said Hiroshi Motomura, co -director of the Center for Immigration Law and Policy of the UCLA. “And then what’s going on is their life, the workers live, become very precarious.”
Carl Shusterman, an immigration lawyer who has been training since the 1970s, says he sees him every day near his home on the Westside and in his practice.
“Enter any restaurant and look who cooks food, or you see who builds buildings in the fanciful and fanciful districts, or who mowed the lawns or takes care of children, or simply choose almost all industries, and you will see that there is no way for these people to obtain a legal status.”
