key takeaways:
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The BTC option indicates caution but not a lump sum recession market change.
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Bitcoins show ETF outflow and futures premium neutral-to-banes, but there is no nervousness.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $ 114,013 on Friday, causing more than $ 200 million in the liquid bullish post and liquidation of the selectors in the BTC derivative markets.
Investors are losing confidence after three direct weeks after failing to hold prices above $ 120,000. But does this mean that the bull run is over?
Under normal conditions, bitcoin monthly futures trading trades from 5% to 10% premium, compared to spot prices to cover the long settlement period. The current 6% premium is the lowest in four weeks, shown to be worn for the bullish position.
Although this is not strongly recession, it indicates that high institutional demand has reduced.
Tariff cannot decup from bitcoin stock amid stress
Bitcoin is trading only 7%, from July 14 to $ 123,182 all high time high, but gold is near $ 3,350, which was unchanged two weeks ago. Many bitcoin investors hoped that “digital gold” property would move independently as the global trade war had increased, yet happy.
After a short period in late June when bitcoin moved the difference from the S&P500 index, the relationship between the two has climbed above 70% in the last three weeks. To act as “Digital Gold”, Bitcoin is now trading more like a high IS risk take stock. It can also explain so it is close to $ 2.3 trillion market price Amazon or Google.
This innings is not necessary. Investors’ views change over time, and global events such as the US imported tariff disputes and an increase in money supply affects every market. If traders feel that the job market is weakening, they often want security in cash and short and term bonds.
1 AREYS US Treasury has reached its highest level in three months, in which investors have started low yields. This occurred as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the May and June job report was revised downwards, which in July increased to 4.1% per month to unemployment 4.2%.
Traders show less confidence in BTC above $ 114,000
To assess whether bitcoin and market makers are reducing leverage bullish posts or the consenting decline of protection, any BTC option can check the market. In the event of a recession, the put (cell) options normally trading at 6% or similer calls (buy) options at high premiums.
The current 5% delta between put and calls is on the side between the slant neutral and the recession, a stance that has a sinner. This is a complete reversal from July 18, when the slant was bending fast. The high cost of negative security indicates weak confidence in $ 114,000 support levels.
Connected: Metaplanet plans to raise an additional $ 3.7B to buy bitcoins
The investor’s announcement also hit the net bitcoin exchange and traded funds (ETF) on July 31 after $ 115 million in pure outflow, which ended at the end of five consecutive days.
On the positive side, the strategy (MSTR) on Thursday announced a plan to release a $ 4.2 billion stock offer, which can help prevent the sales and maintenance of large bitcoins in derivative markets.
Given from derivative data only, there is no indication that 2025 bull runs have been canceled or traders have been described as a recent price fall.
As the coinalgraph reported, August is a historically slow month for bitcoins, with the exception of post-hilling years. Meanwhile, many market analysts hope that the bull market will run in October.
This article is for genealogy information purposes and is not intention and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The ideas here, however, express their opinions, are the author’s alone and not necessarily reflecting or representing the ideas and ideas of the coinletgraph.
