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The recent price moves of bitcoin have closely followed the two-yar fibonacci model. Accoding for Aclyst Cryptocon, the next logical level can be around $ 166,000.
Summary
- Bitcoin has followed continuous Fibonacci extensions levels since $ 15,500 at the end of 2022, with key stagnation at $ 30,362, $ 46,831, $ 71,591, and $ 109,236.
- Crypto’s analyst Cryptocon Project is based on 5.618 Fibonacci extensions as the next logical level as $ 166,754, which fit the 5254% vacancy pattern of the cycle.
- Institutional demand, especially USS Spot Bitcoin ETF now continue to support the price pressure above $ 150 billion in property.
- Analysts have warned of potential short -term pulsbacks, showing a September improvement in previous cycles with seasonal data and sending select matrix that suggest growing benefits.
Fibonacci fingers on the rise of bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently triggered all general market questions near $ 123,000. Some feel that the top is in. Other people have more space to move forward.
As this writing on August. 4, BTC has fallen by about $ 114,500, which is about 7% from its rental peak and about 4% in the last seven days.
But, Cryptocon, a widely followed analyst, believes that Bitcoin is following a repetitive pattern based on Fibonacci extension. Their model provides a way that bitcoin has already followed for almost two years. And if that path continues, the next destination may not be surprised at all.
The story begins at the end of 2022, when the bitcoin fell to about $ 15,500 after FTX collapse. This was the low point of the present cycle. Cryptocon calls this retrace point a zero.
From there, bitcoin started climbing in stages. In April 2023, BTC reached approximately $ 30,362, which was paired with 1.618 fibonaccisy extensions. It stopped around that level, for a few months Mohammad climbed back, again.
In January 2024, it touched $ 46,831, matching 2.618 extension and after a small pullback, bitcoin kept that level as support.
Two more major levels followed. In March and June 2024, Bitcoin touched the 3.618 extension at $ 71,591, failing to break both times. It was consolidated, just as the previous fibonacci was at the level of fibonacci.
Then, in January 2025, it crossed the zone and reached $ 109,236, which matches 4.618 extensions. BTC has a recent high $ 123,000 high level above that level, but blow the next. And significantly, $ 123,000 is not a fibonacci extension. It is in the middle.
For cryptocurrency, it creates an infection area. If the pattern continues, the next logical step is 5.618 levels, which is at $ 166,754.
Why history is still sung at $ 166,000
Cryptocon’s model may seem technical, but it is not new. The same fibonacci structure has also appeared in earr bitcoin cycles.
In 2013, Bitcoin paid a summit of about $ 1,150, which was 5.618 extensions from the 2012 breakout. In 2017, the top 2015 climb near $ 20,000 landed before 4.618 levels.
Even the 2021 cycle, which is called irregular, is at the top of $ 69000, nearly $ 3,200 at 3.618 expansion below 2018.
These retained alignment suggests that the level of fibonacci is executed as a press such as bitcoin ether stops or reverses.
It brings us back today. There was about 95% profit from $ 15,500 to $ 30,362. From there $ 46, 831 was about 54%. Then $ 71, 591 was another one and 53%. About 52%added from $ 71,591 to $ 109,236.
These steps indicate how bitcoin has climbed into a well -defined burst, often draws back to each level before before. If the same vacancy is applied again, the 52 percent increase from the final level holds the next target at $ 166,754, matching the 5.618 extension.
There are also non-technical factors that support this idea. In April 2024, the disadvantage of bitcoin reduced the ongoing supply to miners, an event that has history, elevated in the following year.
After 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin held a rally in 12 to 18 months. Now we are 16 months old in that post-hilling window.
The result is a market that is in line with previous cycles, in which both mathematics and macro forces point to the same level.
Macro moves and policy shifts
The previous bitcoin cycles were carried out by large -scale retail enthusiasm and relaxed ruled exchange behavior. But the current cycle is different. This liquidity is shaped as much by the flow, macroeconomic politics and political direction as it is by technical signs or -Trin pattern.
At the macro level, the US Federal Reserve continues interest rates at the range of 4.25–4.5%. Inflation has decreased from its 2022 summit, but remains sticky. Core inflation is still about 3% above the 2% target of the fed.
This has delayed any firm comment to cut rates. Economic data has shown a sign of wearing, but the central bank remains a cousin.
A major consumer price index report is scheduled to be held in mid -August, expected to be 2.9% for headline inflation and 3% for core.
If this number is reduced, the market can initiate a price cut by the fountain quarter. But the same, the policy remains tight, and the market is responsible for the data compared to speaking.
On the regulator side, the US has seen to indicate a change in tone. In July 2025, the Genius Act finally passed, offering a legal framework for stabechoin and more clearly defined the digital asset classifications.
The strategic bitcoin reserve was approved, which would look into the federal value to keep bitcoin as part of its broad asset portfolio.
Enforcement acts have also been slowed along with cases of privacy. The direction now appears towards integration and regulation, not a restriction.
ETF demand shows how strong this integration is before. The Ishras Bitcoin Trust of Blackrock now holds around 740,000 BTCs, which has assets of an estimated $ 85 billion. It ranks the largest ETF ever.
In addition to all American spot bitcoin ETFs, the total assets have reached approximately $ 150 billion. It represents about 6.5% of the total market cap of bitcoin and currently controls more than one institutes in each Fiftine bitcoin in the circle.
It all supports a background where the demand for instruction can increase without friction, and that is the demand for growth.
What does the behavior clue come next
The target of $ 166,000, drawn from Cryptocon’s Fibonacci model, may look purely structural, but recently enhances the speed of Harswation Motors from other analysts. Seasonal variables.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen exposed a seasonal tendency seen in a rented tweet, seen in a rented year: Bitcoin gained both July and August, followed by a closed in September and a boom in October.
The pattern appeared in 2013, 2017 and 2021.
So far in 2025, July Alumay has closed with 7.22% profit. If August continues more, the trend may play again with a slight decline in September.
Another crypto analyst, Axle, introduced a contrasting view on the market structure rather than the season. They tracked the harmonic meaning of two metrics – NUPL and MVRV – which simultaneously reflects the average unrealistic advantage of life holders.
In both March and December 2024, those matrix market reached 1.95 and 1.99 respectively just before the improvement in the market. The latest reading is at 1.73, which is a high high.
Holders live in profit, but many people gradually reduce their risk risk. The implication is that the uptrend may be released, selling each new cloud feature stringer.
Axel hopes two more rallies before entering a slow phase marked by weak demand and stable advantage in the market.
Together, the technical model still indicates $ 166,000, supported by the historical cycle behavior and follows the demand for ETF. However, close-term improvement and macroeconomic changes can affect how and when the market arrives for that lead.
It is never that the events will appear as an expert of analysts. Crypto markets are unstable, and speed may quickly shift. You can lose more than trade viscele and ever investing more.
Disclosure: This article is not DOS representative investment advice. Materials and materials are painted on this page, only for education.
